Football Betting Strategies
A quick search in Google for ‘football betting strategies’ will likely pull up hundreds of variations of betting strategies that have been used since the introduction of online betting. In all honesty the vast majority of these don’t actually work. Granted there are parts or sections of strategies that you can apply to your betting arsenal but in terms of a locked down format there are very few. Trust us, we have tried them!
Having said that there are a couple which do yield consistent results over a long period of time. Now these strategies aren’t something which will get you rich quick or guarantee that you will win every bet. But they will mean you win a lot more than you lose. Often they are more of a ‘slow and steady wins the race’ form of betting, but applied correctly will make you money in the long run.
A key factor to note at this point is that it’s impossible to win every bet. Even the best football betting strategies take time to master and will require you to follow some strict guidelines. Greed is often something that is strongly related to gambling industry and if this starts to creep into these betting strategies then it’s likely you will lose a lot more than you win.
The strategies below have been tested over massive samples and with a little bit of betting know how, can turn a losing or even breakeven gambler into a winning one.
Back to Lay Using the Exchanges
Betting exchanges are at the forefront of most successful betting strategies. The ability to both back and lay certain result means we can essentially have the best of both worlds in terms of betting. The back to lay strategy in football is based on the principal that in the majority of football matches there is at least one goal scored; and this is all we need for this to become successful.
Essentially what we are looking to do is lay the draw of a football match before the start of the game. When a goal is scored – by either team – the odds of the draw will increase and it’s at this point that we can then back the draw locking in a profit on all results. Depending on which team scores first will have an effect on how much the odds fluctuate, but we are looking for the greatest shift possible in terms of odds on the draw to guarantee more profit. Let’s run through a working example to show you exactly how this works.
First of all we need to find a match where the odds on the draw need to be no more than 3.8 before the match; this is known as the sweet spot. Anymore and the fluctuation on the odds will be less meaning profits will be reduced; most games will be less than this anyway.
Our hypothetical game is between Chelsea and Liverpool, and we lay the draw at odds of 3.8 at the start of the game. We should take note of which team is favourite to win the match. Whilst this doesn’t really matter in terms of what we want to achieve, it will have an effect on how much the odds drift for a goal. If the favourite scores first the odds will lengthen a lot more than if the underdog scores first.
Chelsea are strong favourites to win and after 25 minutes they manage to score the first goal of game giving them a 1-0 lead. The odds of the draw then drift out to 5.8 giving us the perfect scenario to then go and immediately back the draw. Whilst on the exchanges we can type numbers into the site to see how much we need to then back the draw to get a positive reading from each result. This comes about because we essentially have every result covered. Depending on your outlay will also mean you can choose how much liability or winnings you want to receive from each result. Once you have achieved this simply click the confirm bet and no matter the final result you will have a guaranteed profit on all outcomes.
There are a few things to consider additionally to this bet and rules of which you must abide by. Firstly, if there is no goal after 70 minutes then it’s time to cut your losses. This time frame has been chosen as the odds on the draw after 70 minutes will dramatically start to decrease. Simply take your small loss at this point and don’t expose your whole bet or simply let it ride in the hope of a goal.
Don’t be afraid to back one result more than the other. By this we mean work out a number to back the draw that may yield more winnings on one result – for example the win of the team that has scored first – as long term it will often increase profits.
Hedging bets is a strategy that allows you to make a guaranteed profit from all possible results. It’s often tough to find but if you ever get in a scenario where you can apply this to a match then it’s great way to basically ‘free roll’ on a match that you have wagered on.
Let’s look at a quick example of a hedge bet. Let’s say you back Barcelona to win the Champions League before the tournament starts at 10/1 and you place a £10 wager on this meaning you get £110 in returns (includes stake back).
Barcelona manages to make it to the final against Manchester United. The odds of Manchester United to win this game are at 3/1 and the draw is also at 3/1. We already have Barcelona backed but we decide to hedge our bets to guarantee a profit.
A £10 bet on both Manchester united and the Draw means overall we have staked £30 on the competition (£10 on each result technically). If Barcelona wins we get our original win bet of £110 minus the £30 staked, equalling profits of £80. If Manchester United wins we will get £40 minus our £30 total stake equalling £10 profit, with the same numbers for the draw. Basically at this point we are guaranteed to win money on all results with absolutely no liability whatsoever. This is essentially a hedged bet.